Monty Hall Problems

John Tierney has published an article in the New York Times this week, Cognitive Dissonance in Monkeys – The Monty Hall Problem.

The Monty Hall Problem has struck again, and this time it’s not merely embarrassing mathematicians. If the calculations of a Yale economist are correct, there’s a sneaky logical fallacy in some of the most famous experiments in psychology.

The article and his two follow-up posts on his New York Times Blog, TierneyLab, contain the clearest explanations for the Monty Hall problem I’ve ever read. If after reading the article and posts (linked below) with comments, you still can’t quite get your head around this classic problem in probability, post a comment here and I’ll try to help.

Monty Halls Other Problems – TierneyLab – Science – New York Times Blog

The Psychology of Getting Suckered – TierneyLab – Science – New York Times Blog

Expelled Exposed

A movie is opening on the 18th that in my opinion is a propaganda documentary of the worst sort. I think the movie’s intent is to mislead the public by misrepresenting science and scientists in the hopes of getting a particular set of religious teachings forced on students via public school science classes.

The National Center for Science Education has started a new web site, Expelled Exposed, to help people:

Learn more about the anti-evolution movie Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, featuring Ben Stein.

The NCSE is doing a great job of collecting links to news and reviews about the movie. Be sure to re-visit the site as they are updating it frequently when new information is available.

Solar Energy Information

I’ve run across some good solar energy information in the past few weeks in while doing research for a couple of conversations on an engineering list.

EETimes has an article about the seventeenth annual Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference The next gold rush – solar power.

This week PBS is repeating the October 2007 NOVA episode Saved By the Sun, an excellent overview on the current state of solar. It includes an section on the economic model of the new company SunEdison. You can watch it online here.

Finally the US Department of Energy Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Home Page is a good starting point for getting information on all aspects of solar energy. Check out the Myths of Solar Electricity page for some good de-bunking of seven commonly encountered photovoltaic myths. Don’t get confused by the “100-mile-square area” statement in myth #1, that’s a square 100 miles on a side, 10,000 square miles not 100 square miles.

The reality-based community

I’ve heard this phrase on every episode of the Point of Inquiry podcast, yet I’d never taken the trouble to see where it came from. Today in a email conversation with an engineer who isn’t too reality based I thought I could use the reference so I decided to look it up. A post on the Center for Inquiry forums led me straight to the original source.

It is from a New York Times Magazine article from 2004, Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush written by Ron Suskind, here’s the relevant section.

In the summer of 2002, after I had written an article in Esquire that the White House didn’t like about Bush’s former communications director, Karen Hughes, I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House’s displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn’t fully comprehend — but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency.

The aide said that guys like me were ”in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who ”believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ”That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. ”We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

Now I’ll be able to find the source when I need it in the future. It also makes it easier to understand why the Bush administration makes so many really bad decisions, they intentionally ignore reality and try to make their own.

Kirchhoff's Birthday

Happy birthday Gustav Robert Kirchhoff (March 12, 1824 – October 17, 1887) . Back in 1845 while still a student he created Kirchhoff’s circuit laws which solidified the mathematics for basic electronic circuit design. The contributions Kirchhoff made to physics where instrumental in advancing science in the 19th century.

In 2003 the IEEE honored him by creating the Gustav Robert Kirchhoff Award for “outstanding contributions to the fundamentals of any aspect of electronic circuits and systems that has a long-term significance or impact.”

Biographies:
University of St Andrews, Scotland
Wikipedia

There is one of his books available @ Google books: Researches on the solar spectrum, and the spectra of the chemical elements

ScienceDebate 2008

ScienceDebate 2008 has gained some steam lately but they still can use more help. Please stop by their web site and help out if you can.

From the latest email they sent out:

Friday Business Week ran this story on us.

Over the last several days heavy hitters like Intel Chairman Craig Barrett and former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala have signed on, as have numerous universities, including Stanford, Georgia Tech, Cornell, and several others. 

Yesterday, Earth & Sky Radio began running this interview with one of our organizers around the nation.

But the big news is we have invited the candidates.  And we’ve issued a press release.   The debate is set for April 18 at the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia.  That’s four days before the Pennsylvania Primary.  The New York Times, MSNBC, and others have picked up the story. 

In fact, just about the only people we haven’t heard from are the campaigns.  If you have contacts at the Clinton, Huckabee, McCain or Obama campaigns, please urge them to accept. 

Please tell them this is a mainstream concern about the big policy challenges the next president and our nation are facing.  We are doing this for the good of our nation, and we hope those who would lead it take the future of the American economy and job security seriously enough to come to Philadelphia.  We hope they take having a discussion with American voters about climate change seriously enough to come to Philadelphia.  We hope they realize that we as American innovators, business leaders, scientists and thought leaders, and as over 100 leading American universities and organizations, that we care about our nation’s investments in science and math education, that we care about our broken healthcare system and our declining investments in basic research, that we care about scientific integrity, about clean energy, about the future of the oceans and about the biodiversity that secures life on our planet, that these are not arcane, quirky science questions, they are questions about American jobs, about the health of our families and businesses, about our children and the future of the planet, and we hope that those who would lead us them seriously enough to come to Philadelphia.

Thanks for being a part of this historic and important initiative.  Finally, please consider making an online donation here to support our efforts.

The team at ScienceDebate2008.com

Happy 199th Birthday Charlie

darwin-mi-1882On, February 12th, 1809 Charles Darwin was born at Mount House, Shrewsbury, Shropshire, England. Take a moment to read this short biography or view his life in pictures. If you’re more ambitious you can read some of his great works at Project Gutenberg or the University of Cambridge Darwin web site. For any religious people reading this who are unsure of how to think about science and Darwin’s big ideas, please read this earlier post I made, MLK Jr., Science, Darwin & Intelligent Design.

After you’ve learned a little about him please show your support by becoming one of The Friends of Charles Darwin. The requirements for membership are minimal so anyone capable of reading my blog should meet the qualifications easily. Then you can sing Charlie Is My Darwin while you celebrate the life of this giant of science. While you’re visiting the FCD site be sure to subscribe your RSS reader to the wonderful blog, The Red Notebook by Richard Carter, FCD.

If you have some cash, then please donate to The HMS Beagle Project so they can launch next year in time for Charlie’s bicentennial birthday.

Wishing everyone a happy Darwin Day,
Paul Hutchinson, FCD

New paper shows evidence for the Salem hypothesis

I was pointed to this EDN blog post about an Oxford University paper via a mail list posting. I later found another article about it in EETimes. The title of the paper is “Engineers of Jihad” the full paper as a PDF is here and here. It’s part of the Department of Sociology, Working Paper Series at the University of Oxford. The paper is by Nuffield College Professor Diego Gambetta FBA, PhD and Steffen Hertog.

I have only skimmed through most of the paper’s 90 pages so far but I plan a more detailed reading as time permits. The only section I read completely is the section “Religiosity of engineers” beginning on page 51. This section refers to the Salem hypothesis and gives data from a 1984 survey of academic engineers. While the survey does not explicitly deal with creationism it clearly shows engineering academics to be more likely to be conservative and religious. In my experience, the combination of conservative and religious is a good predictor for creationist beliefs, hence my feeling that this supports the Salem hypothesis.

This reply on the mail list surprised me:

Sounds to me more like paranoia over the protestors who are attempting to stop Oxford University building a laboratory where animals will be used for experimental medicine. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/oxfordshire/4707251.stm for typical news item on it.

This engineer jumps right up to say the paper is merely a conspiracy to draw attention away from the PR problems Oxford is currently having. Lets see if this makes logical sense based on the evidence that I see. First, the paper was published three months ago and has not been actively promoted by the university. To me that seems like the absolute worst way to use the paper for deflecting public opinion away from the other troubles. Active early promotion of the paper would help support the premise that this was a diversion but that didn’t happen. Second, I’ve never seen conservative religious groups protesting against animal laboratories, in my experience these types are more likely to defend the laboratory. The paper makes the case that academic engineers are more likely to be conservative and religious. Intentionally irritating those who are most likely to support your cause does not seem to me to be a good way to deflect public criticism. So, from what I see if this paper was meant to diffuse the animal laboratory issue, Oxford has made a very illogical choice.

Reading over the comments at the EDN blog and EETimes article, I see many irrational and conspiracy minded responses from people who likely haven’t even read the paper (some even admit this). The ad hominem attacks, claims that all sociologists are fools and multiple commenter’s saying how they know so many religious non-Muslim engineers, all provide evidence to support the basic premise of the paper and the Salem hypothesis. It sure looks like many of the commenter’s didn’t take the time to read the paper and instead are simply reacting to the papers title, sigh. With all the ridiculous comments is it any wonder that scientists are suspect of engineers when it comes to questions of science.

Another interesting data point is that economics and business majors came in number two, right behind engineers, in the conservative and religious proclivity. Now where have I been recently seeing a high profile member of this 2nd group involved in promoting creationism? Bueller?… Bueller?… Bueller?

While researching this post Tyler DiPietro published an interesting post, Irrational Engineers: A Conjecture. I’m thinking about this and will comment over at Tyler’s site later.

Happy Birthday James Watt

James Watt was born on this day, January 19th, in 1736 at Greenock, Scotland. He was a mechanical engineer and inventor who’s steam engine was a key ingredient in the start of the Industrial Revolution. For this and his other contributions to science and technology the SI unit for power was named the watt in 1960. For more information check out the biographical reference links below. I think I’ll celebrate his birthday buy having a piece of PIE (sorry couldn’t resist the bad EE geek joke).

Biographies:
Wikipedia
James Watt by Andrew Carnegie
James Watt by Thomas H. Marshall
Birmingham Jewellery Quarter – More about James Watt
James Watt: Important Scots
BBC – History – James Watt
Watt letters collection at the Cornwall County Council